September 03, 2005
The Snowball Theory of Blog Traffic
Posted by Gordon Smith

I noticed that Conglomerate is having a nice Saturday traffic-wise, with traffic up about 50% over last Saturday, which was itself up over the Saturday before, though only by about 20%. I assumed that our increased traffic today was attributable to Todd Zywicki's link to Vic's excellent post. When I looked at the referral log, however, I found that the Zywicki link has accounted for a relatively small percentage of our total traffic, perhaps 5-6%.

Although the number of visits from bookmarks to Conglomerate is substantial and growing, our biggest source of traffic remains Google, including Google Italy, Google France, and Google Spain. (For those who have been following the story, we had another big day for "Google Heart" searches, with about 400 hits today as of 9 pm). Of course, the Google hits receive the same weight in traffic counts as the bookmark hits, even though the latter are more valuable in the sense that they are returning readers. In any event, I believe that blogs with high traffic numbers are more likely to be linked by other blogs because traffic implies some measure of credibility.

All of this supports my snowball theory of blog traffic: as a blog becomes more popular, it receives more links, thus improving its Google PageRank, which in turn results in more Google hits, thus making the site more popular.

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