October 21, 2005
Time to Short GOOG? (At least until tomorrow)
Posted by Victor Fleischer

It's a bizarro day for Glomming Google.  I'm usually the most pro-Google of the bunch.  Today, Gordon gets wowed.  He's impressed by Google's 700% increase over the third quarter of last year.  The market shares his exuberance, as the stock price popped to $335.

I'm less impressed.  The NYT story notes that last year's number was depressed $200MM by a one-time charger for settling a patent dispute.  So the real difference in profits isn't $350 vs. $50, but $350 vs. $250.  Still an impressive increase, but hardly the same thing. 

I never cease to be astonished by the amount of gamesmanship still tolerated by the accounting rules.  Why should settling a patent dispute give rise to a charge all in one quarter, rather than over time?  That doesn't make sense to me.  Settling the dispute would allow greater earnings in the future; this suggests the cost should be recovered over time.  Obviously, it's better for Google to eat the charge and not have the drag on earnings going forward.  But why do our accounting rules encourage this sort of distortion?  Or am I wrong about the rules?

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Comments (3)

1. Posted by Bill Sjostrom on October 21, 2005 @ 14:22 | Permalink

I buy into the efficient capital market hypothesis so I am not troubled by accounting gamemanship. Market professionals know the tricks and will trade accordingly thereby resulting in the correct market price. Regardless, I think the big reason for the pop today was not the 700% increase but the fact that Google's earnings greatly exceeded Wall Street's expectations.


2. Posted by Michael Guttentag on October 21, 2005 @ 15:03 | Permalink

No offense Bill, but to deny the relevance of reported accounting information and managerial discretion over accounting choices is to deny the findings of literally hundreds of peer-reviewed papers, primarily in the financial accounting literature. To rely on a generic “efficient capital markets” hypothesis is probably naïve given the more complicated picture that a fairly well developed body of research has revealed. A good review of this literature is available in series of survey articles published by the Journal of Accounting and Economics in 2001, Volume 32.


3. Posted by Bill Sjostrom on October 21, 2005 @ 15:26 | Permalink

I didn't realize I was "denying the relvance of reported accounting information, etc." The point I was trying to make (which I obviously didn't with you) is that if a reporter at the NYT spotted that the 700% difference resulted mostly from an earlier accounting charge, this is reflected in the market price.

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