November 06, 2007
The World's First Trillion Dollar Company
Posted by Gordon Smith

That's what Marketplace is calling PetroChina.

But the company is substantially overvalued, according to commentators. Here's the story: Chinese investors can't invest in equity markets outside of China, and their investment options within China are limited. So they pump money into an overvalued IPO. Some snippets from The Economist:

Warren Buffett [invested] $488m of Berkshire Hathaway's money into PetroChina four years ago. At the time, it was believed that the ratio of its stock market valuation to the value of its reserves made it a particularly cheap way to invest in oil. Just before the offering, with Berkshire's stake already eight times more valuable, Mr Buffett sold out—a move that seems premature in retrospect....

The crazed valuations in Shanghai and Beijing are a source of wonder around the world and a matter for concern in Beijing. PetroChina's shares are trading in New York and Hong Kong at 20 times this year’s earnings—other big oil companies trade at half that—and at some 50 times earnings in Shanghai....

Jarringly, there is also the possibility that PetroChina’s price does not truly reflect any market value. Only 14% of its shares are traded, and only 2% were sold in Shanghai, prompting desperate buyers to ask for vastly more than they wanted in the hope of getting a small allocation that could be sold immediately. With liquidity so shallow, price movements will be volatile.

Chinese investors can reason that they have little choice but to accept the volatility and the high prices because their alternatives are so limited. Bank deposits pay interest below inflation; property comes with suspect ownership rights. Of late investing at any price has proved rewarding and market fever has infected China. Cooks and seamstresses in tiny dress shops now have laptops alongside their pans and old sewing machines allowing them to day trade at work.

Almost lost in all of the talk about PetroChina was another Chinese IPO, Alibaba, which looks like a throwback to the U.S. in the 1990s. Alibaba is an internet-based company that describes itself as follows:

Alibaba.com is the world's number one online marketplace for international and domestic China trade, according to Alexa.com as measured by user traffic. We provide an efficient, trusted platform connecting small and medium-sized buyers and suppliers from China and around the world. Our international marketplace (www.alibaba.com) focuses on global importers and exporters and our China marketplace (www.alibaba.com.cn) focuses on suppliers and buyers trading domestically in China. Together our marketplaces form a community of more than 24 million members from over 200 countries and regions, as of June 30, 2007. Alibaba.com is the flagship business of the Alibaba Group and one of the world's premier e-commerce brands.

The stock is now trading at about 140 times next year's estimated earnings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Shares moved from an IPO price of HK$13.50 (83p) to HK$35.75 (£2.21).

With Google's stock price going through the roof on the prospect of getting ads to my mobile telephone, I am in a '90s mood today.

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