April 10, 2008
Microsoft's Next Move
Posted by Gordon Smith

Yahoo's board of directors is meeting tomorrow. So many options. Or not.

Aside from Microsoft's solo bid, Yahoo's directors will likely discuss a plan under which Time Warner Inc. would fold its AOL unit into Yahoo in exchange for a roughly 20% stake in Yahoo. Another potential scenario for Yahoo is a joint deal with Microsoft and Rupert Murdoch's News Corp., owner of The Wall Street Journal, to combine News Corp's MySpace, Microsoft's MSN and Yahoo into a separate company, people familiar with the matter said.

Hmm. This is like shopping at a bad used-car lot.

This could all be over in a flash if Microsoft raised its bid. My guess is that it will eventually come to that, though probably not tomorrow. Steve Ballmer has a bit more time under his ultimatum, and he realizes that the Microsoft deal only looks better as Yahoo explores alternatives. So I suspect he will wait for awhile, raise the bid back up to $31/share (the original bid before Microsoft's shares declined in value) and bring the deal home.

By the way, Yahoo's biggest shareholder, Capital Research & Management Co., seems to think the price will be rising, too. According to an SEC filing yesterday, CRM nearly doubled its stake in Yahoo. It now owns 10.1% of the shares.

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