Lawyers venture into the world of macroeconomics at their peril, but perhaps the Glom's savvy readers can help me understand the change in the aura of the world's beknighted central bankers. Time was, when the Fed cut rates, the markets stood up and cheered like they were supposed to. But that was the Greenspan era, and my sense is that Bernanke has not at all had the same luck with his monetary supply moves ... and that he wasn't getting the sort of rapturous responses the Fed was used to receiving even before the August phase of the financial crisis.
Today the Europeans cut rates a little, and the British rates a ton (1.5%! Incroyable!), and the markets over there reacted by collapsing 5-7%.
What gives? Cheap money alone can't solve a recession - but we already knew that. But if banking is a confidence game, does that rule apply to central banking too? I would have thought no (but see this), because central banks aren't levered. Still, there's a pervasive sense of "you people can't help with your old hat rate cuts," in what I read. If confidence has been lost in central bankers, whomever will we trust?
It apparently won't be a global financial crisis regulator, if the US has anything to say about it....
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1. Posted by Elizabeth Brown on November 6, 2008 @ 10:01 | Permalink
I am not sure why the Europeans wanted to hold this conference now. As a lame duck administration, the Bush Administration would not have the power to create a new Bretton Woods system. In addition, all of the previous actions by the Bush Administration indicate that it has no inclination to do so. If the Europeans, particularly the French and the British, really want to reform how global financial markets are regulated in any substantive way, they would have been better off waiting till January after the new administration takes office.
2. Posted by erik on November 6, 2008 @ 23:00 | Permalink
The problem of why monetary policy is having a limited effect on investors is a function of different factors in the US and EU.
In the US, the Fed has been ahead of the curve (relatively to other central banks), but is quickly running out of ammunition due to a worsening economic forecast.
Many analysts believe that the Fed is "pushing on a string." That is, the Fed can continue to flood the market with liquidity but it will only have a limited effect because banks aren’t willing to lend money directly to firms or consumers. The Fed has sidestepped this problem (somewhat) by lending indirectly to firms via providing liquidity to buy asset-backed commercial paper; the main day-to-day funding mechanism of firms. Ultimately, though banks are still hoarding cash (though less than a few weeks ago) because they still don’t know the amount of write downs on their own balance sheet, but perhaps more importantly, everyone is uncertain regarding the current economy including consumers’ ability to spend (minimal) and firms’ future prospects. Indeed, uncertainty over the extent and depth of the economic downturn, firms’ future earnings, and Obama’s future economic prospects are all weighing down the market. Until there is greater clarity regarding these questions, monetary policy is unlikely to have a substantial impact.
In England and Europe, the problem (at least until yesterday) was that the BOE and ECB were severely behind the curve. Granted, both the BOE and the ECB have different mandates; both are tasked with preserving price stability rather than full employment. However, both feared inflation for far long which essentially led them into this position. In addition, uncertainty is also starting to weigh down equity markets as the economic downturn is far worse than previously expected in England, and Germany (the EU’s best-performing economy).
3. Posted by David Zaring on November 6, 2008 @ 23:10 | Permalink
Eric - great comment, Elizabeth, I couldn't agree more on the conference, it's almost like Europe wants it to fail.....
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