We've had our suspicions here at the Glom, and it looks like Bloomberg is coming around to our view. In a story reporting that Yeshiva thinks it lost $14.5 million, rather than $110 million from Madoff, the wire service notes:
The $50 billion alleged in the fraud may reflect the amounts of money that clients were told they had in accounts, not the amounts they originally invested.
Which makes at least some sense. Regardless of the reason, there's no way that Bernie Madoff stole and then dissipated 10 times more money than David Einhorn has under management. Hat tip: Miriam Baer.
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1. Posted by Sean M. Sweeney on January 8, 2009 @ 19:02 | Permalink
I think this whole story is going to be interesting as it unfolds what was actually lost. If it were in Wisconsin I would think you would have to figure out the figure lost as the initial investment plus 5% statutory interest to determine what should be there. Not what your latest fraudulent and inflated report said your holdings were valued at. (if you actually ever got statements, I read in the Economist that if you asked questions you were cut off by Madoff.)
2. Posted by Taxrascal on January 8, 2009 @ 21:21 | Permalink
That's not usually how people measure the scope of fraud. I bet that if you went over Enron's history -- the money they raised versus the dividends, buybacks, interest, and principal repayments -- you'd find that, net, they returned more capital than they consumed. Measuring based on what he lied about makes more sense -- Yeshiva thought they had the $110 million he claimed they'd made, not the $14.5 million they had originally invested.
If you put together a simple model of a Madoff investment -- 12.5% gross return, 20% performance fee for the conduit doing the investing -- you'd find that fees eat up all the money within sixteen years (remember, the fee would be on the rapidly-growing amount he pretended to have, but would be paid out of the actual money he raised). If you add a 10% annual redemption (e.g. someone investing their retirement money in Madoff, and living off of the returns plus a sliver of principle), you go from initial investment to insolvency in six years barring further asset raising.
3. Posted by Taxrascal on January 8, 2009 @ 22:41 | Permalink
See also:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090109/ap_on_bi_ge/madoff_false_profits
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