June 02, 2009
End of Crisis Regulation Links
Posted by David Zaring
  • The banks will, in fact, be permitted to get out of the TARP next week, the Times reports.  The good governance question turns on how much they will have to pay to do it; Steve Davidoff prices one bank's underpayment via Black-Scholes here.  Which raises the question: if the money is that cheap, is the reason everyone wants out exec comp?  And if so, what does that say about the quality of bank management?
  • Regulatory reform is coming, but it might not be the rationalization that Henry Paulson and Paul Volcker asked for in separate reports last year.  Instead, every agency may survive except the OTS.  Slightly incoherent, but Larry Cunningham and I both expected that this would happen, and think there is a case to be made for disaggregated domestic regulation, a la, the race to the top.  Paper here.
  • I am convinced, however, that better international cooperation would be a good thing, and contributed a chapter to the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation's reform proposal outlining why.  That is Hal Scott's, John Thornton's and Glenn Hubbard's shop, and you can read the proposal here, international is at the end, and everything else is well worth your consideration.

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Comments (4)

1. Posted by fedgovernor on June 2, 2009 @ 6:59 | Permalink

"... if so, what does that say about the quality of bank management?"

You mean the same bank management that was lending hundreds of thousands of dollars to people with no money down?

And no proof of even an income?

And no proof of even citizenship?

You mean THOSE bank managers?

Is the quality of these bankers still a matter of serious debate?


2. Posted by MDF on June 2, 2009 @ 12:48 | Permalink

On regulatory cooperation and having the IMF work as an early warning system:

1. With regulatory cooperation (and particularly with the emphasis on harmonization), isn't there a risk of regulatory homogenization? And if the harmonized regulation is wrong, doesn't that increase systemic risk? Arguably, this happened with Basel II -- which the SEC adopted as part of its CSE program and which resulted in US investment banks having the same catastrophic leverage ratios as European commercial banks (while the Fed, which ignored Basel II requirements, kept US commercial bank leverage ratios at much lower levels).

2. And relatedly, given that pretty much everyone (Fed, SEC, UK FSA, ECB, etc. etc., with the possible and debatable exception of the CFTC's Brooksley Born) misunderstood the risks posed by the securitized subprime market, what makes anyone think IMF staffers will be able to do better, no matter how much money they are given? The amazing thing about the current crisis is that so many regulators got it wrong, despite widely varying regulatory philosophies and regulatory structures. This was fundamentally a problem with the zeitgeist. And the IMF isn't going to be above any future problematic zeitgeists.


3. Posted by David Zaring on June 2, 2009 @ 21:19 | Permalink

I do get that, but regulation will always fail at something ... it isn't as if the industry did better, and many of those shareholders and bankers had every incentive to solve the problem.

And given the risks of global contagion, I'd consider some harmonization ... and ensuing failure to be worth it, but I take the point, MDF.


4. Posted by MDF on June 3, 2009 @ 11:35 | Permalink

My fear exactly. Even the people with a financial incentive to get it right got it wrong. It wasn't just a failure of regulation -- though regulatory failure contributed to it. Fixing the regulatory system is certainly a good thing to do, but no regulatory structure will be able to avoid getting "it" wrong when everyone else is getting it wrong. Regulators second-guess themselves constantly, because their information is so constrained and because of pressure from interest groups, Congress, etc. (all supremely confident that the regulator doesn't know what it is talking about). In the end, regulators will bend. They always do.

The extent of the mess is turning me into a Minsky acolyte.

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