Last month when Crumbs, America's first public cupcake company, announced it was closing most of its stores after its stock was delisted by Nasdaq, and it had defaluted on some $14.3 million in financing, many viewed the annoucement as a sign that the cupcake industry bubble had finally burst.
In the past decade, cupcakes appeared as if they were taking over with businesses sprouting up everywhere. Not only had cupcakes come to replace traditional cakes at weddings and birthday parties, but people were willing to stand in ridiculously long lines and pay sometimes as much as $5 for a single cupcake or between $30 and $50 for a dozen. A 2012 story on Georgetown Cupcakes in DC suggested that sometimes the lines could take up to an hour to get through.
Some view the apparent demise of Crumbs as a sign that the cupcake craze was a trend that had finally run its course. Or put differently, an unsustainable business model. In addition to concerns about potential market saturation and over exposure, some indicated that pricing was a problem. Indeed, while cupcakes were touted as an "affordable luxury," some note that at $3.50-$6 each, cupcakes seemed more like an overpriced snack. As this article suggests, these cupcakes were not something middle America could afford. Another problem was low cost of entry--potentially reflected in the many people who thought they could give the cupcake business a try. Still another was diversity--could an industry based on a single food really survive with competitors that offered more than just cupcakes? And then there was the problem of potentially swimming against the health trend. Cupcakes seem like a healthier option than your large slice of cake or pie, but alas as a Forbes article points out "your typical large frosted premium cupcake can have as much as 500 calories," and lots of people eat more than just one.
And even the Crumbs story is not over. Just this week it was annouced that Crumbs would begin reopening it stores because, as the Wall Street Journal notes, a court signed off on a sale of Crumbs to "self-styled turnaround guru Marcus Lemonis and Dippin Dots owner Fischer Enterprises." Apparently, part of the turnaround strategy will be moving away from reliance on just cupcakes and incorporating other desserts.
So while the cupcake bubble has certainly gotten smaller, it may be too soon to tell if we can really call the cupcake craze a bust.
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