Gordon recently blogged about Uber's sky-high valuation.  I'm skeptical for 2 reasons.  First, regulation could put Uber out of business fast (I'm lookin at you, airbnb).  Allied against it are taxicabs and limousine services, and these folks have a lot of money to lobby in state capitols.  I'm not saying that the Forces of Technological Disruption are doomed, but my current research is making me much more cynical about money's influence on politics--and that's saying something.  I do think Uber is playing it smart by getting big fast--the path for regulatory survival will be to be so widespread that it becomes normal.  If everyone has an aunt or college grad or cousin who's an Uber driver, then regulating it out of existence seems downright unamerican.  

 

My second reason for skepticism people's tendency to mistake their world for the whole world.  Call it Bobo Blinders.  Uber is big in places where venture capitalists flourish: New York, Northern Cali, Chicago.  I see a scenario where venture investors use this service, all their friends and family, everyone they know uses this service, and they think: This is going to be huge!  Everyone will use this service! 

 

We'll see.