Congratulations to the Giants on winning the World Series, one of the two least statistically inclined teams in baseball, the other, of course, being the Royals. Indeed, with the possible exception of the Red Sox, the teams that have won the World Series since the sabermetric revolution have all been rich (as are the Red Sox, so it is hard to characterize them as solely stats-driven), traditionally strong in scouting, or random.
What does this tell us about baseball analytics? Over the next week, I predict you'll hear:
- It tells us nothing, short series are random, and the fact that a moneyball team has never won the World Series is a product of chance.
- It tells us nothing, everyone uses statistics now, and therefore teams that say they are not moneyball teams are, in fact, moneyball teams.
- What about the Red Sox, doesn't that show that moneyball works, even though short series are random?
I like looking at sports through stats. It is way more thoughtful than "he wanted it more," or "you gotta make that play." I'm actually not positive it's much more predictive than just looking at net spends or surveys of experts. But what do I know? Everyone uses moneyball now.
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